This article, written by Rich Vesel – Founder of Advanced Projections, was originally written for and published by Advisor Perspectives, linked here. Popular opinion, as portrayed in the financial press, is that the Fed was way too late in responding to the threat of inflation. So, let’s turn back the statistics clock one year and review what was going on at that this time in...Read More

This article, written by Rich Vesel – Founder of Advanced Projections, was originally written for and published by Advisor Perspectives, linked here. We are all familiar with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) as a measure of inflation and price stability, which the Fed targets at a 2% annual rate. When this statistic is volatile, the Fed refers to measures of core inflation to mask off...Read More

This article, written by Rich Vesel – Founder of Advanced Projections, was originally written for and published by Advisor Perspectives, linked here. Ever since the first quarter showed a decline in real GDP, the word “recession” has been increasingly prevalent in our conversations. The classic definition of recession, or at least one of the most widely accepted definitions, is two consecutive quarters of GDP decline....Read More

This article, written by Rich Vesel – Founder of Advanced Projections, was originally written for and published by Advisor Perspectives, linked here. In our original search for advanced indicators of recessions, my colleagues and I at Advanced Projections searched for a set of reliable trends that could be found in non-obscure economic data that would provide clear and unambiguous leading indications of impending recession. Our...Read More

This article, written by Rich Vesel – Founder of Advanced Projections, was originally written for and published by Advisor Perspectives, linked here. We all heard the Federal Reserve pronouncements back in mid-2021 about the likely “transitory” nature of inflation, which was incipient at that time. The unemployment rate had just dipped slightly below 6% for the first time in over a year. Unknown to the...Read More